By Dr. Nikolaos Mazarakis

The North Atlantic and North Pacific tropical cyclone season officially began 12 days ago. As every year, the US National Weather Service (NOAA) and the National Tropical Cyclone Center (NHC) have released their long-range forecast for this year's expected activity in the North Atlantic of this important phenomenon for maritime safety. The main conclusion drawn from these estimates is that this year's season will probably be more active than average.

More specifically, NOAA's forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts that the number of tropical systems with a probability of 60% will exceed the average, while the other two scenarios with numbers close to and below the climatic ones give probabilities of 30% and 10% respectively.

The National Tropical Cyclone Center predicts 13 to 19 tropical storms which will be given a name (this means that they will be accompanied by winds of more than 34 knots). Of these, 6 to 10 are expected to develop into hurricanes (with winds of at least 64 knots), including 3 to 5 strong hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds over 96 knots). NOAA gives the forecast 70% confidence level.

These estimates are of course uncertain, while we cannot know at this time the exact time of appearance, frequency, trajectory and strength of tropical systems. Usually the months with the greatest activity are August and September, when the annual ocean temperature is at its highest. So the general conclusion is that we are heading into an intense year where proper monitoring and interpretation of the meteorological data we receive on board is the only way to keep a safe distance from the dangerous zone of tropical cyclones, which we have explained in older article.

This year's Tropical Cyclone season is expected to be active

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